Most ideas can only be post-rationalized

Ideas can be categorized into one of two buckets:

• Ideas that can be pre-rationalized. This is when you have the elements to determine whether the idea will be successful before trying it.
• Ideas that can only be post-rationalized. This is when you can only determine whether idea is successful after trying it.

While we’d all love to live in a world where most ideas can be pre-rationalized with data and logic, the truth is that we live in a chaotic system. This means that most ideas cannot be pre-rationalized; in fact, Foresight is creation, not prediction.

Instead, most ideas can only be post-rationalized: we try them, and if they are successful, we construct a new theory of success around them. This means we need someone to make the first move without the elements to predict success, so that they can create a new theory of success that others will follow.

When done well, this is the only way for humanity to actually move forward and create the future we want to see. However, we should also be mindful that Post-rationalization can lead to survivorship bias.

References

• [[foresight-as-activism-researching-vs-making-culture|Foresight as Activism Researching vs. Making Culture]]
• [[the-sarumans-and-the-radagasts|The Sarumans and the Radagasts]]