While it’s true that most ideas can only be post-rationalized, we must always remember that the map is not the territory. If we forget it, it can lead to the following:
- Someone has the courage to try an idea that cannot be pre-rationalized.
- The idea is randomly successful, and industry pundits post-rationalize it, turning it into a flawless idea.
- The idea starts spreading even though it is not reproducible.
If the idea gets enough traction, it creates a bubble, which will eventually deflate once we realize it doesn’t hold up to scrutiny.