Post-rationalization can lead to survivorship bias

While it’s true that Most ideas can only be post-rationalizedThe map is not the territory, we must always remember that The map is not the territory. If we forget it, it can lead to

• Someone has the courage to try an idea that cannot be pre-rationalized.
• The idea is randomly successful, and industry pundits post-rationalize it, turning it into a flawless idea.
• The idea starts spreading even though it is not reproducible.

If the idea gets enough traction, it creates a bubble, which will eventually deflate once we realize it doesn’t hold up to scrutiny.

References

• The Sarumans and the Radagasts