Instead of focusing on your output, which is not controllable, you should determine which input metrics will influence the desired output metric and focus on those instead.
#tbd How do you find input metrics from output metrics?
This is the core principle behind, for example, activity-based sales: you can’t control how much you’re selling, you can only control e.g. how many leads you call per day.
From Working Backwards:
Amazon argues that it’s not enough to know your output metrics. In fact, they go even further, and say that you shouldn’t pay much attention to your output metrics; you should pay attention to the controllable input metrics that you know will affect those output metrics.